Commodity Market Review: Wheat, Cocoa, and Gold Prices Rise
Summary
- Wheat futures rise due to rainstorms in midwestern US and limited corn supply
- Cocoa prices peak as Ivory Coast and Ghana seek to cut supply
- Gold prices continue rally among global political tension
Wheat
Persistent rainstorms in the US Great Plains area did not leave wheat untouched, with wheat futures climbing to the highest since Feb. 19 last week. The gain partly stemmed from concerns that “excessive moisture” in the Great Plains region could hurt the upcoming wheat harvest. Moreover, with the global corn supply under threat, farmers are more likely to turn to wheat as substitute animal feed. W1 prices accordingly rose 4.08% in the forecast period.
The chart above illustrates that the price of wheat futures increased with unfavorable weather conditions and dwindling corn supplies.
Cocoa
Last week, cocoa futures rose sharply as Ivory Coast and Ghana producers reported that they would stop sales in a rally for higher prices. Together, the two countries comprise about 60% of the global cocoa supply. Last Wednesday, cocoa futures accordingly reached an 11-month high at $2,545. ICE_CC1 rose 4.08% in our 14-day forecast period, in accordance with our bullish outlook.
The chart above illustrates that the price of cocoa futures increased as producers in the Ivory Coast and Ghana threatened to cut supply.
On May 30th, 2019, the I Know First algorithm issued bullish predictions for commodities for a 14 day time horizon. The predictions included CME_W1 (wheat futures), and ICE_CC1 (cocoa futures) with a positive signal of ranging 0.95 for CME_W1 and 0.47 for ICE_CC1, and with a predictability indicator of 0.18 for CME_W1 and 0.15 for ICE_CC1. Over the 14 day trading period from May 30th to June 13th, CME_W1 gained 4.08% and ICE_CC1 rose by 4.08%, in good agreement with the I Know First forecast. This bullish commodities forecast was sent to the current I Know First subscribers on May 30th, 2019.
Gold
Tensions rose in the global market last week as the US and Iran clashed over who was to blame for recent attacks on two US ships in the Persian Gulf. Moreover, news that “China’s industrial production was at its slowest growth pace in 17 years” stirred additional fears among investors. Among such uncertainty, gold prices hit a 13-month high, reaching a peak on June 14. In the 14-day period of this forecast, GLD rose 2.62%, in line with our bullish outlook.
On May 31, 2019 the I Know First algorithm issued bullish predictions for gold for a 14 day time horizon with a positive signal between 0.06 and 0.02, and with a predictability indicator between 0.22 and 0.21. Over the 14 day trading period from May 31st to June 15th, gold averaged a gain of 2.62%, in good agreement with the I Know First forecast. This bullish gold forecast was sent to the current I Know First subscribers on May 31, 2019.
Algorithmic Stock Forecast: The table is a commodities forecast produced by I Know First’s algorithm. Each day, subscribers receive forecasts for six different time horizons. Note that the top 10 commodities in the 1-month forecast may be different than those in the 1-year forecast. In the included table, only the relevant commodities have been included. The boxes are arranged according to their respective signal and predictability values (see the link for detailed definitions). A green box represents a positive forecast, suggesting a long position, while a red represents a negative forecast, suggesting a short position
Please note – for trading decisions, use the most recent forecast.Get today’s forecast and top commodities picks.
