How do you read the Market Forecast and Forecast Performance charts?
Q. What is the forecast date?
A. The forecast date is the date the algorithm released this set of predictions.
Q. What is the time horizon?
A. The time horizon is the suggested period of time to hold the suggested gold. When we calculate the forecast performance, we do so from the forecast date through the end of the time horizon.
Q. What is the Heat Map on the left side of the Market Forecast/Performance screen?
A. The left-hand side of the Market Forecast/Performance screen is the algorithm’s gold predictions for the given time horizon. The algorithm sorts commodities by the predicted strength of their movement (signal); those on top are forecasted to rise the most and those on the bottom are predicted to fall the most. The gold prediction’s stregnth can be compared to those of other commodities by looking at its position in the heatmap
Q. What do the colors indicate?
A. The green boxes signify long predictions and the red boxes signify short predictions. The bright shades denote the strongest predictions.
Q. What is the heatmap?
A. The heatmap is the agglomeration of all the colors of the commodity predictions. An overwhelmingly green heatmap suggests the commodities market will generally go up and an overwhelmingly red heatmap suggests that the market will generally go down.
Q. What are the symbols/numbers in the two gold predictions?
A. The top-left symbol is the stock ticker for each forecasted commodity.
A. The middle-right number is the signal. The signal expresses the direction and magnitude the algorithm believes the gold will move. A positive signal denotes a long prediction and a negative signal denotes a short prediction. A strong signal indicates that algorithm believes that the gold will move by a large magnitude. A strong symbol varies by the market being analyzed — the stock market has relatively large signals because it is volatile while the currency market has relatively small signals because it’s movements are less pronounced. When analyzing an asset’s signal it is important to compare its present signal relative to those of other assets in its asset class as well as to its own historical signals.
A. The bottom-left number is the predictability. The predictability is the confidence of the algorithm’s prediction, a relative indicator of how likely the gold will move in the predicted direction. The predictability is the historical correlation between the algorithmic prediction and the actual market movement for each particular asset. As with signals, predictabilities are relative, therefore, its important to compare a commodity’s present predictability to its historical predictabilities.
Q. What is the table to the right of the Heat Map?
A. The right-hand side of the Market Forecast/Performance screen is the summary of the performance of the algorithm’s forecasts during the given time horizon.
Q. What are the arrows (green “up-arrow”/red “down-arrow”)?
A. The green “up-arrow” denotes a recommended long position and the red “down-arrow” denotes a recommended short position.
Q. What are the percentages to the right of the arrows?
A. These are the percent changes in the commodities from the time they were forecast through the end of the time horizon. The percentage changes are positive if the gold price increases and negative if the gold price decreases.
Q. What is the accuracy (checks and x marks)?
A. If the algorithm correctly predicts the direction of the gold’s movement, a check mark is placed next to the gold’s return and if the algorithm is incorrect in its prediction, an x mark is placed next to the gold’s return.
Q. Why is there occasionally a check mark next to a negative percentage?
A. When the algorithm suggests shorting gold (red “down-arrow”) and gold decreases in value (negative percentage), the algorithm was correct in its prediction.
Q. What is the return?
A. The return is the percentage movement of each commodity multiplied by 1 if the algorithm suggested a long position or multiplied by negative 1 if the algorithm suggested a short position. In other words if the algorithm correctly predicts the direction of gold, the return is the positive percentage change of the commodity, and if the algorithm incorrectly predicts the direction of gold, the return is the negative percentage change of the commodity.
Q. How should I use the predictabilities and signals?
A. It is recommended that investors consider both the signal strength and predictability, as a highly predictable commodity that barely moves and an unpredictable commodity that is projected to move drastically both make unattractive investments.
Q. Which time horizons should I follow?
A. The longer-term forecasts (1-month and 3-month) tend to have higher predictabilities as the algorithm can more easily spot long-term trends. We suggest following these two time horizons the most closely, but the more reactionary shorter term horizons are helpful in understanding the short-term volatility of the market. Perhaps if you see that gold with a strong, positive 3-month prediction has a negative short-term forecast, it is a good idea to wait until the gold decreases in value before buying it.
Q. Do your predictions come with entry and exit points?
A. Our predictions change daily as the algorithm processes the previous day’s new information and as it learns from the previous day’s successes and failures. There are no hard and fast rules for when to enter and exit, but if you see that gold has a strong positive signal, it is a good idea to wait a week or so to observe its movement before buying it. It is important to look at both the evolution of gold’s long-term signal as well as the general direction of the gold’s short-term predictions. If the gold has negative short-term predictions, you may be able to buy gold for a discount before buying it for its projected long-term growth.
Q. Can I get intraday stock predictions?
A. Though our algorithm works best in the long-term, we do offer intraday predictions. To learn more about this option, please email firstname.lastname@example.org
Questions about receiving our newsletter and purchasing our products
Q. What is the I Know First weekly newsletter?
A. We send out a free newsletter every Sunday, which includes our most recent Forecast Performance charts along with occasional gold prediction graphs, articles written by our staff, coupons for our products, and other material we hope investors will find interesting
Q. How much does the weekly newsletter cost to receive?
A. The weekly newsletter is free.
Q. How do I receive the weekly newsletter?
A. If you go to the Subscribe Today page, there is a box on the right-hand side of the page to submit your name and email address. Once you submit your email, you will be added to our email list and receive our free newsletter the following Sunday.
Q. How do I view the various products that I Know First offers?
A. Once you submit your email on the Subscribe Today page, you will automatically be transferred to our Products Page.
Q. Can I pay with PayPal?
A. Yes. Please contact us at email@example.com for more information.
Q. Can I purchase a bundle for various stocks, commodities, currencies, etc.?
A. We offer many customizable bundles that include predictions for various asset classes. Contact us firstname.lastname@example.org to create your own bundle including the following predictions: stocks, aggressive stocks, European stocks, currencies, commodities, bonds, ETFs, etc.
Questions about the products we offer
Q. What products do you offer?
A. Gold-prediction.com offers six different prediction forecasts, which include the “Daily Gold Forecast”. In addition, we supply products that include the “Daily Gold, Silver & Oil Forecast”, “Commodity Forecast”, “Currency Forecast” and “World Indices Forecast”.To read more about our products visit our Products Page.
Q. When do you send your gold forecasts to subscribers?
A. We send our daily gold forecasts by email in the following days and times:
- Sunday (this is the forecast for Monday) – at least an hour before the US stock markets open
- Tuesday to Friday — at least an hour before the US stock markets open
Q. What is I Know First’s historical return?
A. Though I Know First recommends analyzing its predictions everyday, looking for opportunities to buy the gold when it is at its lowest prices, we nevertheless calculated the returns of a generic portfolio. This generic portfolio was created by buying all of I Know First’s 3-month, Top 10 stock predictions in equal weights on the first day of each quarter. This portfolio yielded 28.86% since July 1st 2012, beating the S&P 500 by 11.38%; and yielded 16.40% YTD, beating the S&P 500 by 3.95%. Though this is a decent investment strategy for inactive investors (as one only changes his stock portfolio four times per year), we again emphasize the additional merits of checking the forecasts daily to identify trends in the algorithm’s forecasts.
Q. Will I “Get Rich Quick”?
A. Not necessarily. We offer services that forecast the direction of the stock market, which should be used as a guide for your investments. Though we beat the S&P 500 by 11.38% in the past 12 months, we are not promising unrealistic future results.
Q. Am I guaranteed to make money investing with I Know First?
A. No. Though our generic Top 10 stock portfolio has historically performed extraordinarily well, past performance is no guarantee for similar future performance. (However, it is a good indicator)..