Gold Forecast For 2015: What To Expect For The Upcoming Year?
In 2014, there is not so much to say about gold as we have seen very flat performance in the gold market. The precious metal has gone nowhere, as spot prices for the yellow metal have barely moved despite geopolitical and global economic turmoil that should have urged investors to seek safe haven investments.
One of the main issues for gold this year was the disturbance in eastern Europe and the Middle East which ‘teased out some buying as hedge against risk’, Wall Street Journal said. Also, China’s demand for gold dropped in the third quarter as China’s slowing growth affected demand. Moreover, Kitco analysts also noted that weaker oil prices have lead to lower physical gold demand in the Middle East, which has been a significant driver of the market in the last two years.
But the biggest issue has been the recovery of the United States economy that has caused commodities to suffer. A stronger economy and US Dollar has taken the appeal off gold. The opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing gold, often seen as an alternative to riskier investments, became too high.
Given that gold hasn’t been able to get back on track after its 12-year bull market that ended two years ago, an increasing number of investors are wondering whether the gold market will perform better in 2015. Indeed, some investors are betting against gold prices while others are expecting prices to rise.
One of the main arguments for the investors that are betting against gold is a stronger US dollar and US economy. The logic behind it is that when the dollar does well, many investors choose greenbacks rather than yellow metal as a reliable safe haven from volatility. Also, a steady stream of strong U.S. data could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon, a factor that would hurt non-interest-bearing gold. In addition, the drop in oil prices have pulled down the overall commodity market. Deutsche Bank analysts added that “While the negative implications of lower oil prices on the S&P500 might introduce pockets of support for gold we expect the overall trend in gold will be lower”. Also, as they expect China’s growth to continue staggering, as well as the European Union and the Japan’s growth, demand for physical gold in those regions will continue to drop
On the other hand, some investors expect a bull gold market in 2015. They believe that geopolitical tensions in Middle East, especially with drop in oil price, could bring a completely new wave of debt default for banks and companies, putting their economy in peril. This will led many investors to choose the precious metal as a safe haven. Also, as J.P. Morgan analysts said in their outlook for 2015, “Increased physical buying, especially in India and China, should support prices as eager consumers are likely to further take advantage of lower prices”. Finally, the bulls believes that decline in oil prices should boost demand for gold as people will be looking for gold as safe heaven.
Given all of the above, it is very hard to predict where the gold market is heading. It appears that many of the conditions that have helped keep gold prices down this year aren’t likely to end in 2015 while other factors could boost the price of gold in 2015.
